近日，中国社科院世界社保研究中心主任郑秉文在环球时报撰文，对人口政策对经济的影响陈述了自己的观点，该文刊登于《环球时报》10月23日B7版，这里全文刊发。
Recently, professor Zheng Bingwen,the director general of the CASS center for International Social Security Studies for Global Times, stating his viewpoint on the impact of population policy on economy at the page B7 of the news paper on the 23th of October,2015.Now the full text put here for the readers:

Baby bust in China will have negative impact on economy

Govt should improve training to offset impact of shrinking labor force

By Zheng Bingwen (Global Times)

Although it was only in recent years that China gained entrance to the upper middle-income countries club, the decline in the proportion of children in its population - baby bust, or "sho-shi-ka" in Japanese - has far exceeded that seen in many high-income nations.
According to data released this year, the average total fertility rate (TFR) of middle-income countries is 2.42 children born per woman, while the corresponding child dependency ratio - the ratio of the population aged 0-14 to the population aged 15-64 - is 39.5 percent. The two indexes for China are 1.55 and 23.5 percent respectively, far below average for a middle-income country and very low even for high-income countries.
The phenomenon of baby bust is different from an aging population. The latter occurs when the number of people aged 60 or over surpasses 10 percent of the total population. The concept of baby bust is mainly discussed in Japan because the change in the country's demographic structure is greater compared to that seen in other developed countries. Though there is not yet any internationally accepted quantitative criterion to define a baby bust, I believe that it occurs when the number of children aged 0-14 drops below 18 percent of the total population.
Baby bust no doubt has a lot to do with a lack of enthusiasm about having children. High income nations also have low birth rates. According to data published by the UN, the average TFR is 2.51 for the world as a whole and 1.75 for high-income nations. Meanwhile, the average child dependency ratio is 39.7 percent for the world and 26.0 percent for high-income countries.
Based on the TFR, it can be concluded that almost all high-income nations suffer from a baby bust. However, immigration inflows to countries such as the UK, France and the US prevent the dependency ratio for high-income nations from becoming very low.
In China, the challenges presented by the baby bust are even greater. TFR in China reached a peak of 6.30 back in 1965, and it has gradually dropped since then to 1.55 in 2015. The dependency ratio also reached a peak of 74.6 percent in 1965, and it has since fallen to 23.5 percent this year. In only 50 years, China's demographic structure has taken such a massive turn that the number of children in the country has declined significantly. China's situation is very rare and more importantly, the peak of baby bust in the country has not yet arrived.