这期刊发的《工作论文》是由郑秉文撰写的《Population
ageing and the impacts of the universal Two-child policy on China’s
socio-economy》。如引用，请注明出处并征得本实验室（世界社保研究中心）或作者本人取得联系——编者的话
Population
ageing and the impacts of the universal Two-child policy on China’s
socio-economy
Bingwen Zheng
Center for International Social Security
Studies(CISS),
Chinese
Academy of Social Sciences(CASS), Beijing, P. R. China
Email: zhengbw@cass.org.cn
ABSTRACT
The Two-child policy was officially proclaimed in the Guideline of the 13th Five-Year
Plan and approved in March 2016. This article provides a detailed analysis
of the Chinese demographic structure characterised by ageing with
sub-replacement fertility. It argues that the universal Two-child policy is
timely and necessary for the new Normal Economy. The policy has significance in
relieving socio-economic pressure and promoting economic growth, for which it
is not only a necessary premise but also a sufficient condition. Having
reviewed the evolution of the demographic transition theory, this research
undertakes a comparative analysis of different stages of demographic transition
in different regions across the world. It further investigates the three stages
of successful demographic transition in the People’s Republic of China. The
universally adopted Two-child policy, as it meets the requirements and law of
demographic transition, is also unavoidable with socio-economic development.
KEYWORDS:Population ageing, ageing with sub-replacement
fertility, One-child policy, demographic transition, universal Two-child policy
In March 2016, the Guideline of the 13th Five-Year Plan for
National Economic and Social Development, P.R.C. (later abbreviated as the
Guideline of the 13th Five-Year Plan) officially announced the
government’s policy on universally allowing all couples to give birth to two
children .
The Chinese President, Xi Jinping, pointed out in a speech at the end of
2015 that China’s demographic structure is obviously characterised by ageing
with sub-replacement fertility. This expression not only indicates the trend of
Chinese demographic evolution in the near future but also explains the main
reason why China has to universally adopt the Two-Child Policy.
Ageing with
sub-replacement fertility: inversion of the Chinese demographic structure is
inevitable
The definition of ageing
with sub-replacement fertility
The phenomenon
of ageing with sub-replacement fertility is both a feature and a trend of the evolution of
the demographic structure in China. Sub-replacement fertility and ageing are not
totally homogeneous, which are related to each other. They may appear in one
economy at different times. In the static condition in which external factors
such as migration are not considered, there are two issues that lead to
population ageing: one is the increase in life expectancy led by an improved
living standard and health care, which becomes the so-called longevity risk;
the other is the process of sub-replacement fertility, which, given a fixed
life expectancy, can invert the demographic structure.